1. Ledger points

Each drafted player earns points from how his career actually played out. The formula uses only games played and honors, so it works for every position:

Career item	Points

Points go to the team that made the pick, whatever happened afterward. A first-round tackle who starts for ten seasons earns a lot; a first-rounder who never plays earns zero.

2. What a slot usually produces

For every pick number we average the ledger points of players taken there in the drafts, which have had at least six seasons to play out. We then smooth the result so a better pick is never expected to produce less than a later one.

3. Your bust line

A player's value vs slot is his ledger points divided by what his slot usually produces. If it falls below your bust line, he is a bust. At 150% or more he is a hit. Everything in between is fair value.

• Lenient lines (20–30%) only count players who never became real contributors.
• Strict lines (70–100%) count anyone who fell short of an average player at his slot.

4. Team and GM grades

Within the rounds and years you pick, each team gets a hit rate and a bust rate. Teams are ranked by hit rate minus bust rate, and letter grades come from that ranking: the top 10% earn an A, the next 20% a B, the middle 40% a C, the next 20% a D and the bottom 10% an F. Because the bust line changes bust rates unevenly, moving it can reshuffle the board.

GMs are ranked the same way, among those with enough graded picks in the rounds you pick: 4 in Round 1, 9 in Rounds 1–3, and 12 or more otherwise (about three drafts' worth). Each GM is credited with the drafts they ran for that team.

Class-by-class bars compare each draft class with the other teams' classes in the same year.

5. Recent classes and rookies

Every draft class is graded except the newest one. For classes from on, expectations are scaled down to match the seasons played so far, so a young player is judged against what a pick in that slot usually has produced by the same point in a career. Their grades will move as their careers play out.

Rookies in their first season are not graded. Instead, the Predict page lets you call each one a bust, a solid pick or a hit, and those calls are scored later with the same formula.

What this does not capture

• Draft-day trades. Credit goes to the team that made the pick. When a team trades the player it chose, it gets the points for the pick, not for what came back.
• Production. Points reward playing time and honors, not statistics, so an excellent player on a bad team or in a niche role can be undervalued.
• Injuries and circumstances. A career cut short by injury counts the same as one that fizzled.
• Who made the call. Owners, coaches and personnel staff often share draft decisions, so GM grades are a convenient label, not a verdict on one person.

Data

Draft picks, games, starts and honors come from the public nflverse draft dataset. Grades are DraftLedger’s own calculations and opinions. DraftLedger is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL, its teams or any player.